Can Trump Win the Presidency (and What Would That Mean for Stocks?)


After 11 Republican, 6 Democratic debates, caucuses and primaries in 18 states, the delegate count for Republicans and Democrats is as follows:


Trump 329 (1,237 needed to win nomination)

Cruz 231

Rubio 110

Kasich 25

Clinton 1058 (including 458 super delegates, 2,383 needed to win nomination, )

Sanders 431 (including 22 super delegates)

Last July we wrote:

"On the Republican side - comedy and chaos.  Jeb Bush maintains a slight edge at the top of the GOP polls (with 15%.).  Trump (the candidate du jour) is at 12%.  We wrote in March, 'the Republican primary process will operate like a circular firing squad.'  That situation is worsening by the day.  Where is the candidate with the stature of Reagan, Eisenhower, or even Nixon?

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's lead over other candidates slid from +60% a month ago to just +48.5%.  Sanders attracts Democrats disaffected by Clinton's centrist bent and Wall Street connections and could win a couple of primaries.  We doubt his campaign will mount a serious threat to Clinton.  Joe Biden may yet step into the ring, but too little, too late.

Read the entire commentary here.