We last wrote a market commentary July 11th. Since then, we've had nothing to say as investors focus on the last stage of the US presidential election, excluding any other data points including the US employment situation, US corporate earnings, and US Fed Policy. Through September 30th, US stocks as defined by the S&P 500 are up 7.85% on the year, up 0.013% for the month of September and up 3.31% in the third quarter.
Our forecast remains 10% gains by year end, contingent on Clinton winning the election. If Trump wins, we expect a Brexit like reaction where stocks sell off 7-10% in three days. Unlike the Brexit scenario, which primarily harmed British investors, we expect US stocks would not recover quickly. A number of our clients are so anxious about a Trump win that we have told them we will sell all the stocks in their retirement (IRA, 401K) accounts 4 days before the election IF there is a chance Trump can pull out of the death spiral of his campaign.