Implications of the Trump Presidency for US Stocks

Implications of the Trump Presidency for US Stocks

After 107 days of the Trump Presidency, we believe that this administration is determined to be the wildest reality TV show of all time.  People say, "War is God's way of teaching us geography."  Perhaps Donald Trump is God's way of teaching us about the Federal Government?

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Confounding All Expectations, Donald J. Trump Elected US President

Confounding All Expectations, Donald J. Trump Elected US President

FiveThirtyEight.com was the most conservative, forecasting an electoral split of 272-268 in favor of Clinton with a 66% probability of success.  The mood among Republican operatives, even the candidate himself, was despondent.  No candidate in modern electoral history who polled so badly post Labor Day had ever won.

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4 Trading Days Till US Presidential Election: We Are NOT Invoking Our Doomsday Plan

4 Trading Days Till US Presidential Election: We Are NOT Invoking Our Doomsday Plan

At this point, everything that can possibly be said about this election has been said.  Whether you dislike Trump more than Clinton, or dislike Clinton more than Trump, the horrible, miserable conclusion is just days away.

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Can Trump Win the Presidency (and What Would That Mean for Stocks?)

Can Trump Win the Presidency (and What Would That Mean for Stocks?)

After 11 Republican, 6 Democratic debates, caucuses and primaries in 18 states, the delegate count for Republicans and Democrats is as follows: Trump 329 (1,237 needed to win nomination), Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25, Clinton 1058 (including 458 super delegates, 2,383 needed to win nomination), Sanders 431 (including 22 super delegates).

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The CNN Fear and Greed Index hits "Extreme Fear" (but we're not selling...)

The CNN Fear and Greed Index hits "Extreme Fear" (but we're not selling...)

A very short bulletin as stocks settle into the close. The S&P 500 peaked September 18th at a record 2,011.18, but since fell 8.5%, which leaves the major average down 6.2% on the quarter and up just 1.6% on the year.

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US Stocks Score 35 Record Highs So Far in 2014 (what WAS that unpleasantness two weeks back?)

US Stocks Score 35 Record Highs So Far in 2014  (what WAS that unpleasantness two weeks back?)

As US stocks hit a 6 month low two weeks ago on October 15th, we wrote, "The CNN Fear and Greed Index hits "Extreme Fear" (but we're not selling...)". In hindsight that was a good call because US stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, rallied significantly over the next two weeks and closed at the 35th record high of the year on October 31st. 

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Rocking the Lifeboat - Comments on the Recent Stock Market Volatility

Rocking the Lifeboat - Comments on the Recent Stock Market Volatility

The cruise ship sank. The passengers are gathered in the lifeboat. The officer in charge knows how to reach safety, just over the horizon. If the passengers trust him, sit in their seats, pull on the oars and bail when necessary, all will make it home. 

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"Fear Factor" still high among US investors, but S & P 500 approaching highs for the year

"Fear Factor" still high among US investors, but S & P 500 approaching highs for the year

We have the pleasure of spending quite a bit of time among the "1 percenters" - American families whose annual income exceeds $500K. Our favorite cocktail party question this summer is: "Given everything you've heard recently, do you think the stock market is up or down this year?" 

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