After the Worst Week, Month, Quarter and Year in Over a Decade, Why Are We Suddenly Bullish on Stocks?

After the Worst Week, Month, Quarter and Year in Over a Decade, Why Are We Suddenly Bullish on Stocks?

A long time client writes, “No capital gifts this year. Seeing a Dow that is falling like a stone, day after day, does not inspire me. It is acting like 2008 and the economy could not be more polar opposite from 2008.”

Exactly! Yet, US and international stock market performance is the worst since 11 years ago during the 2008-9 financial crisis.

What we are doing right now?

  1. Any client that depends on their portfolio for their monthly draw will receive their regular payout January 2nd and throughout 2019. Clients with draws have a year’s worth of cash in money market securities, and 4 years of cash in bonds. These clients can survive a 5 year drought in equity market returns without a negative impact on their lifestyle, just as we saw back in 2008-9

  2. We are not selling ANYTHING this week. About 4 weeks ago, we harvested tax losses in any households with at least $50K in realized gains so far in 2018. Those funds are sitting in cash, and will be reinvested shortly as soon as the “wash sale” period expires.

  3. We also decided to eliminate the 5% allocation to commodities (oil and gas, metals, foodstuffs) that we have maintained for many years. Commodity prices could not stay up when the world economy was booming due to ever more efficient production, and with the world in a slump, prices only look down for a while. Those funds are still in cash.

  4. Of the many families who came on board since June, our general plan was to invest 1/3 of their stock allocation immediately, 1/3 if prices declined 10% and the remaining 1/3 if stock prices declined 20%. If prices did not decline, we would just scale in after 6 and 12 months. Following this plan we invested a lot of money on December 3rd, thinking stocks were already 5% undervalued and that the traditional “Santa” rally would soon be upon us. However, as December progressed, investors following events in Washington freaked out and dumped stocks wholesale.

  5. For clients whose retirement is still a few years in the future, don’t worry. Our “all-weather” investment strategy assumes that bear markets can and will occur, and yet your retirement will be fine. Indeed, if you have cash on the sidelines, now is a great time to put that cash to work

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How To Deal With A Turbulent Stock Market

How To Deal With A Turbulent Stock Market

Timing the market is not a smart strategy for the average investor. Read on to find out why and also learn about three alternative approaches to investing which will hopefully prevent you from pulling your money out of the market in a panic - which is never a good idea.

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Stocks slip 6 percent in 6 days - should we sell?

Stocks slip 6 percent in 6 days - should we sell?

This year, we brought on board quite a number of new families, but we've only invested 1/3 to 1/2 of their cash.  Why?  Because this sharp sell-off, 6% in the major stock market averages over the past 6 days, is exactly what we anticipate when stocks have had a good, long run and valuations are stretched to the high side.

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Q&A With David Edwards: What are the best investment vehicles for a young, new investor looking for simple, long-term investments?

Q&A With David Edwards: What are the best investment vehicles for a young, new investor looking for simple, long-term investments?

I am 27 years old, single, have no kids, and my student loans are being repaid due to my military service. My only expenses are rent and a small number of bills. I have spent the last year saving and reading financial literature and I want to start investing now. What is the most simple and effective way to do so? Ideally I would like something I put a set amount into each month and it grows over time.

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Q&A with David Edwards: Should I pay off my mortgage loan or invest with the money I am receiving from an inheritance?

Q&A with David Edwards: Should I pay off my mortgage loan or invest with the money I am receiving from an inheritance?

Question: My spouse and I will be inheriting about $750,000 to $800,000. The payoff balance of our mortgage is estimated at about $180,000 at 3.5 percent APR for 30 years. Would it be worthwhile to allocate some of the money we are inheriting to pay off the mortgage loan? We still have 27 years left to pay. Alternatively, should I invest the money and continue paying my mortgage?

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Q&A with David Edwards: Should I sell my mutual funds when I sense a bear market approaching?

Q&A with David Edwards: Should I sell my mutual funds when I sense a bear market approaching?

Question: I have about $93,000 invested in non-retirement mutual funds. I have been considering trying to time the market by selling these funds when I sense a bear market approaching (incurring a $1,700 capital loss) and then buying the same funds at a cheaper price once the bear market has arrived. I have no debt and an emergency fund. Is this a good strategy, or too risky?

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Q&A with David Edwards: How do I know if a stock is overvalued?

Q&A with David Edwards: How do I know if a stock is overvalued?

Question: To find the price-earnings ratio of a stock, I divide the current stock price with the last four quarters of earnings. If the current list price is higher than the number I get when I calculate the P/E ratio, what does that mean? Is the stock overvalued?

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Five Finance Concepts A Savvy Investor Needs To Know

Five Finance Concepts A Savvy Investor Needs To Know

Not every investor is as savvy as they could be. Financial education is not taught in high school. In fact, it’s only taught to college students who proactively seek out to learn about this topic. A lack of knowledge can hurt your portfolio so read on for 5 key finance concepts you must know as a savvy investor.

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Q&A with David Edwards: How Can A Stay-At-Home Mom Generate Investment Income?

Q&A with David Edwards: How Can A Stay-At-Home Mom Generate Investment Income?

Question: I am a stay at home mom. Me and my husband have six children. My husband has a great job. However, I would like to generate some income without having to work outside the home. I have been learning about trading, I want to invest in the stock market. What is the best place to start?

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“Feathering” Our Portfolios: What Sailing Teaches Us About Investing

“Feathering” Our Portfolios: What Sailing Teaches Us About Investing

There are many similarities between sailing and investing. A lot has to do with preparation: it is much easier to manage unforeseen events by planning in advance. This will allow you to stay the course instead of reacting to the markets.

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