The 2016 Year in Review

The 2016 Year in Review

In January 2016, we projected that the S&P 500 would gain 5% for the year, but we noted we would revisit that estimate in July.  In July, noting that an earnings recession among US corporations was coming to an end, we elevated our forecast to 10%.  For the full year, the S&P 500 rose 12.0%, so close enough.  Full details of US and world Indexes are here.

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Can Trump Win the Presidency (and What Would That Mean for Stocks?)

Can Trump Win the Presidency (and What Would That Mean for Stocks?)

After 11 Republican, 6 Democratic debates, caucuses and primaries in 18 states, the delegate count for Republicans and Democrats is as follows: Trump 329 (1,237 needed to win nomination), Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25, Clinton 1058 (including 458 super delegates, 2,383 needed to win nomination), Sanders 431 (including 22 super delegates).

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Rocking the Lifeboat - Comments on the Recent Stock Market Volatility

Rocking the Lifeboat - Comments on the Recent Stock Market Volatility

The cruise ship sank. The passengers are gathered in the lifeboat. The officer in charge knows how to reach safety, just over the horizon. If the passengers trust him, sit in their seats, pull on the oars and bail when necessary, all will make it home. 

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US Stocks Make 31 Record Highs in 2014, But Investors Panic During 3% Selloff

US Stocks Make 31 Record Highs in 2014, But Investors Panic During 3% Selloff

US stocks as defined by the S&P 500 made 31 record highs in 2014, most recently on July 24th.  Through Friday afternoon, stocks declined 3.3%, which is to say less than the decline of 4.2% we saw in April of this year, and decline of 5.6% in January.

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Investors fret about Europe, but US stocks up 8.6% on the year

Investors fret about Europe, but US stocks up 8.6% on the year

So far, a strange year where US stocks have surged or fallen violently daily for reasons having nothing to do with fundamentals in the US and everything to do with the daily pronouncement out of CNBC of whether the "risk trade is off or on." Luckily, we pay no attention to CNBC whatsoever.

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Why the US employment situation matters more than any other indicator...

Why the US employment situation matters more than any other indicator...

Why the US employment situation matters more than any other indicator right now. Once a month on the first Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the "Unemployment Situation" for the previous month.

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